Traders look for a Kalshi BTC 15-minute strategy. This page doesn't give you one. It shows plain facts from the last 30 days of Kalshi's official results, so you can test your own ideas against what really happened. It updates by itself every day.
When the last window(s) closed the same way, how often the next window closed that same way again, or flipped.
| Situation | Seen | Next window: same way | Next window: flipped |
|---|---|---|---|
| After 1 window the same way | 2043 times | 50% | 50% |
| After 2 windows in a row the same way | 1014 times | 50% | 50% |
| After 3 windows in a row the same way | 502 times | 49% | 51% |
| After 4 windows in a row the same way | 247 times | 49% | 51% |
Share of windows whose final price ended within these distances of the Kalshi target.
| Distance at close | Share of windows |
|---|---|
| Within $25 of the target | 24% |
| Within $50 of the target | 42% |
| Within $100 of the target | 69% |
| Hour (ET) | Windows | Closed ABOVE |
|---|---|---|
| 3 PM ET | 84 | 58% |
| 4 AM ET | 76 | 58% |
| 11 AM ET | 84 | 55% |
| Hour (ET) | Windows | Closed ABOVE |
|---|---|---|
| 9 AM ET | 88 | 33% |
| 2 PM ET | 84 | 42% |
| 5 AM ET | 85 | 42% |
Full hour-by-hour table on the stats page.